dinsdag 5 juni 2012

Innovation PV power forecasts

In a recent report on solar power by McKinsey, the most positive forecast on global photovoltaic power is a total installed capacity of 700 GW in the year 2020 [1].

If we fit that data in my forecast, being a fitted S-curve, it shows as follows:

If my predictions are right, which I hope so, the very positive forecast of McKinsey is way too conservative still. In my model, it is early 2017 that an installed PV power of 700 GW is reached. In the year 2020, my model predicts a fourfold amount of global installed PV power, compared to the McKinsey predictions.

Only future may tell who is right.....

[1] http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Sustainability/Latest_thinking/Solar_powers_next_shining