woensdag 28 augustus 2013

Predicting population growth

In my earlier blog, I've suggested that population growth can be predicted to a certain extend by previous years unemployment figures. In the Netherlands, according to this relative simple model, the population is predicted to decrease next year:




Just to give this simple and rather bold model some credibility, I have collected some data of some other European countries.

Italy


According to this model, Italian population is to decline from an unemployment level of 11,5%. Currently Italian unemployment is about 12,1% sufficient to have a negative population growth, similar to the Netherlands.





Spain


In Spain, the threshold for a shrinking population appears to be 25% unemployment, which was surpassed in 2011, and indeed last year (2012), the population in Spain shrunk. The number was spot on the (predicted) fitted line.... For 2013 I again expect shrinkage of the number of Spanish inhabitants, since unemployment is currently at 26,3%.


Greece


In Greece, a linear model was difficult to fit before 2010, but here a threshold appears to be around an unemployment rate of about 15%. Last two years, indeed, the population in Greece diminished. It is likely that the number of inhabitants of Greece will again diminish in 2013.  



From this late afternoon comparison with other countries, it appears that the prediction of a shrinking Dutch population is not all that bold.....  Most Dutch people have not yet realized how the world, also in our country is changing.

The figures on which the graphs are based, are from the years 1995 onward, for as far as I could retrieve them from the web.




[1]  Spanish Statistical Office: http://www.ine.es/prensa/np788.pdf

[2] Wikipedia, demographics of Spain: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Spain

[3] Unemployment figures of Spain: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/unemployment-rate

[4] Population growth figures: http://www.gapminder.org/data/

[5] Unemployment figures of Greece: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/unemployment-rate

[6] Demographics of Italy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Italy

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