maandag 7 september 2015

Patent tip:The next innovation to die

Innovations come and go. More adequately innovations come by foot and leave by horse, much like trust. An illustrative example is the development of wind powered mechanics in the Netherlands. From the dutch website molendatabase.nl, I've distilled the number of active windmills throughout eight centuries. Eight centuries! Here is what has happened:



Windmill technology was virtually wiped out first by steam engines, later on by internal combustion engines and electrically driven engines. An entire technology, which evolved and developed in seven centuries has -within one century- become entirely obsolete*.

Steam engines themselves underwent the same fate, as the following image illustrates:




So who is next?

Well, if we see the rapid change in electrical energy generation, as is illustrated by a pair of simple S-curve fits on historic data of the global electrical energy consumption (blue) and the globally installed solar PV peak power (orange):



It is no surprise that traditional electricity generation is facing the same fate windmills and steam engines have experienced. Only this time it will be faster and more severe! Within the coming nine years, most electricity power stations as we know them will be either demolished, or kept as a museum for educational and nostalgic values. If you are aiming to invest, shorting traditional electrical power is likely to be one of the best investment options ever.

This is a transformation of virtually biblical proportions, yet, no-one seems to grasp.

I can only say: enjoy the show, it is happening RIGHT NOW!





Note:

The number of windmills in the Netherlands is rising again. Next to about 1000 traditional windmills, about 700 wind generators are currently installed. I will address a blog to this alternative clean power generation technology.


Sources:

www.molendatabase.nl

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